South Front

1. US Will Not Support Israeli Attack Against Iran, But Can The Israelis Be Curbed?

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Written by Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts

The fact that Iran provides weapons to Palestinians is not heinous at all, because a population under "belligerent occupation" (in the wording of the Geneva Conventions) has the right to "resist". And Tehran's decision to attack Israel in retaliation to the latter bombing its consulate is quite reasonable. Moreover, "the responsibility" (for the crisis) "lies more in Washington than in Tehran." This is what Stephen M. Walt, renowned professor of international relations at Harvard University, wrote on Monday – that is not some "radical", mind you. Walt's piece is in itself an indication of how increasingly isolated Israel is becoming.

On April 1, Israel bombed Iran's diplomatic compound in Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisers (three senior commanders included) and two Syrian civilians. Iran's retaliation took a while, but it sure came: almost two weeks later, on Saturday night (April 13), the attack was launched. It involved over 30 cruise missiles, 120 ballistic missiles, and 170 drones, and lasted around five hours. The explosions were heard in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and in cities across the country, with air raid sirens sounding in over 700 locations. Most projectiles were successfully intercepted, with the help from the Unites States, France, the United Kingdom, and also Jordan, which shot down some of the missiles. Zero Israelis were killed, and there was some minor damage to military infrastructure in southern Israel.

US President Joe Biden responded on April 14 by saying that "Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks, sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel." He added that he would "coordinate a united diplomatic response" to the Iranian attack – without any mention of military action, though.

Further indication that thus far Washington has managed to curb Israel's will to war is the fact that Netanyahu reportedly abandoned the idea of a retaliatory strike against Iran after a telephone call with Biden. The latter has insisted that the fact that Tel Aviv intercepted almost all of the 300 missiles and drones Tehran fired against them is already a victory. Others may see it differently of course. French entrepreneur Arnaud Bertrand nailed it thusly:

"Iran communicated about its plans for its strike 72 hours in advance to everyone, including America (via the Saudis). It was meant to be intercepted, a mere performative show, and despite this you still had 7 missiles pierce through Israel's defenses. Imagine the impact a surprise strike would have. I think Iran's message was therefore 'we show that we can hit you – this time we warn you in advance so you can defend yourself, but next time we won't'."

Paul R. Pillar (a fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and at the Geneva Center for Security Policy), in his April 5 piece, pointed out that, by "imagining [what] if the roles were reversed", one can grasp just how much Iranian authorities must felt pressured to respond with full force: "If Iran had bombed an embassy of Israel or the United States, a violent and lethal response would be not just expected but demanded by politicians and publics alike." "Popular sentiment", as he describes it, indeed can play a role in the calculations of decision-makers everywhere – including in Israel.

According to Pillar, the Hamas attack on southern Israel surprised Iranian leaders too, and since that episode, Tehran has displayed a high level of "restraint" – partially because of Iran's "military inferiority vis-à-vis Israel or the United States and its profound economic problems."

The paradox of Palestine is that while Palestinians civilians are indeed being massacred amid a humanitarian catastrophe, Israel in turn is not really winning militarily – not to mention politically and diplomatically. Israel's unprecedented bombing of a diplomatic mission is not necessarily merely "one more manifestation of the uncontrolled national rage that has characterized Israel since the Hamas operation in October", as Pillar puts it. It rather stands out as a clear attempt to provoke an Iranian response and get its American backer involved in a regional war. This did not quite work out as intended, though. In all likelihood, Tel Aviv either failed to "notify" Washington of their bombing of the Iranian consulate or did so with very little short notice.

In the expert's words: "the attack was part of an effort to escalate Israel's way out of a situation in which its declared objective of "destroying Hamas" is out of reach, the worldwide isolation of Israel because of its actions in Gaza is becoming undeniable, and even its habitually automatic U.S. backing has patently softened. For Netanyahu personally, escalating and expanding the war, insofar as this also means continuing it indefinitely, is also his only apparent hope for staving off his political and legal difficulties."

Basically, Walt, in his turn, reasons (in the aforementioned piece) that by offering unconditional American support to the Israelis there is thus little incentive for the Tel Aviv to exercise any restraint. Therefore, when Americans calls for restraint, they gets ignored by the Israelis. The result is that now even US authorities acknowledge there is a famine in Palestine. With Gaza devastated and over 30,000 Palestinians killed in such a short period of time (including more than 12,000 children and babies), it is no wonder Israel faces accusations of genocide during a war that cannot be described as "normal".  By October 2023, the number of Gazan children killed was already greater than the number of casualties of children during the entire first year of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, according to the Euro-Med Humans Rights Monitor (it is now six times greater).

There has been an Israeli-Iranian "shadow war" indeed, however the record shows that more often than not the Jewish state has initiated most of the violence, while the Persian nation has mostly responded.

In July 2022, I wrote that an Israeli-Iranian war was almost inevitable in the coming years – and that Americans would not be ready to accept the possible global effects of such a war, in terms of destabilization and unpredictability – the American goals being all about containing the Islamic Republic without going to war. The problem, as usual, is that the Jewish state has its own concerns and agendas – not to mention popular sentiment. Washington is learning the hard way that being the patron does not automatically entail "obedience" or predictability from one's protégé. In other words, "proxy" conflicts may get out of control. By arming and funding other nations (with radicalized leaderships), be it in the Middle East or in Eastern Europe, Washington plays a very dangerous game.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• Houthi Leader Says Group Carried Out 14 Operations In Two Weeks
• Hezbollah Takes Out Israeli Radar With New Advanced Iranian-Made Missile (Video)
• U.S. Approved Israeli Attack On Gaza's Rafah In Exchange For Canceling Strikes On Iran – Report

The post US Will Not Support Israeli Attack Against Iran, But Can The Israelis Be Curbed? appeared first on South Front.

2. Ukrainian Strikes In Russian Rear Regions On April 17-18, 2024 (Map Update)

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• Russian forces shot down 2 Tochka-U missiles, 19 RM-70 Vampire rockets, 16 suicide drones and two incendiary balloons in the Belgorod region;
• Russian forces shot down 3 suicide drones in the Rostov region;
• Russian forces shot down 1 suicide drone in the Voronezh region;
• On April 17, US-made ATACMS missiles attacked Russian military airfield in Dzhankoi;
• On April 17, Ukrainian UAV was destroyed in the Republic of Mordovia;
• On April 17, Ukrainian UAV was destroyed in the Republic of Tatarstan.

The post Ukrainian Strikes In Russian Rear Regions On April 17-18, 2024 (Map Update) appeared first on South Front.

3. No Rest For Ukrainian Army Either At Front Or In Rear

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Russian precision strikes give no rest to the Ukrainian military in rear regions. The exhausted Ukrainian air defense can no longer effectively repel the constant combined strikes. Despite Kiev's attempts to blame the Russians for attacks on civilian facilities, the truth is more and more difficult to hide.

On the night of April 18, new wave of Russian strikes hit Ukrainian military and energy facilities in the Kharkiv and Kiev regions.

Explosions were reported in the town of Vishgorod not far from the Ukrainian capital. The target of the attack is yet to be revealed; but the town hosts a large pumped hydroelectric energy storage facility.

While Kiev is threatening Russia with the continuation of ground operations in the border regions, Russian forces are pounding Ukrainian military facilities in the border Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Last night, Russian strikes on Ukrainian manpower and equipment thwarted plans of Ukrainian assault groups to launch attacks in the Russian Belgorod region.

According to local reports, Russian drones and missiles reached targets in the western Ukrainian regions. A military airfield in the Ivano-Frankivsk region reportedly came under attack. The facility served as a reserve airfield for the Ukrainian Air Force. During the massive Russian strikes, Ukrainian aircraft are moving there from the neighboring regions. It is also used for repair of military aircraft.

More strikes were reported in the city of Ivano-Frankivsk itself, where a point of temporary military deployment and an ammo depot were destroyed.

Another military airfield struck last night was reportedly the notorious Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnitsk region, which is targeted on a regular basis to prevent the deployment of NATO F-16 fighters there.

Russian attacks in the Ukrainian rear continue around the clock. On April 17, Russian missiles inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainian military, accommodated in a hotel in Chernihiv. Another strike destroyed a lot of Ukrainian servicemen hiding in a school in Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.

On the other hand, Ukrainian forces can only achieve any victories when their attacks are launched with the close-in support of the NATO military.

Likely preparing for another attack on the Crimean Bridge, NATO-Ukrainian forces attacked a military airfield in northern Crimea. Russian air defense deployed there suffered losses from the strikes of the US-made ATACMS missiles. The strikes were coordinated by American reconnaissance UAV spotted over the Black Sea.

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4. Is Orban Right About EU’s Endless Failures?

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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

On April 17, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban spoke at this year's National Conservatism (NatCon) conference, a gathering of conservative political parties in the European Union, as the name aptly suggests. Dubbed the "gathering of Europe's far right" by the mainstream propaganda machine, NatCon is indeed opposed to the ultra-liberal ideology and policies of the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. Thus, it's hardly surprising that Orban was quite critical of the troubled bloc's numerous failures, as he openly urged voters to reject mainstream political parties in the upcoming EU elections. Orban even called on the political leadership in Brussels to resign, pointing out that all of their major projects and policies, such as the so-called "green transition", sustainable development, migration, military and sanctions, etc. failed.

"The sense of this European election is: change the leadership," he stated, adding: "If the leadership proves to be bad, it must be replaced. That's so simple."

For the Associated Press, this was "too much", as the major mainstream propaganda machine outlet complained about the applause that Orban, a "right-wing populist leader" according to them, got for those words. He also criticized the EU's suicidal climate policies and agriculture rules that make it impossible for farmers across the EU to stay in business. In addition, Orban warned that the ongoing migration crisis is getting out of hand and that the possible admission of the Kiev regime to the EU or NATO should not be allowed, primarily for economic and security reasons. He also criticized the European Commission, the bloc's effectively unelected executive body, for using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to attack his country, slamming the EC for an attempt to "suffocate Hungary financially".

And indeed, the Brussels bureaucrats illegally denied giving Budapest access to billions of euros in funds over alleged "concerns about democratic backsliding in the country", as well as the "possible mismanagement of EU money". In Orban's view, this is nothing more than an attempt to blackmail the country due to his strong stance on all of the aforementioned policies and ideologies that the political West subscribes to nowadays. He also reiterated that the failures extend to the self-defeating sanctions on Russia. The mainstream propaganda machine usually accuses Orban of being a supposed "staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin" for such a stance, particularly when it comes to his opposition to the change of Ukraine's status as a potential geopolitical buffer zone between the EU/NATO and Russia.

In addition, Orban called the Neo-Nazi junta "just a protectorate relying on Western money and weapons, not a sovereign state anymore". Expectedly, this wasn't met with approval in Brussels, which even tried to prevent this year's NatCon, citing alleged "security concerns" as the excuse for it. The AP called the conference "a gathering of strident nationalists and fundamentalist Christians", complaining about the fact that it resumed after winning a legal challenge against Brussels city authorities which tried to prevent it under the pretext that it posed "a threat to public order". Other prominent EU conservative figures, such as Eric Zemmour from France, were to attend the NatCon. However, Zemmour was held by the police, preventing his address about the EU's immigration rules that can only be described as suicidal.

And while the mainstream propaganda machine is shrieking at the very idea someone would dare criticize and strongly oppose any (let alone all) of the aforementioned policies, the obvious question arises – is the so-called "far right" in the EU right (no pun intended)? Can anyone really refute Orban's claim that the political leadership in Brussels is incompetent when they say things like "Russia is losing so badly that its military is forced to take chips out of washing machines"? Such ludicrous propaganda myths clearly indicate that the so-called "EU elites" are far more like flea market salesmen, rather than leaders who could ever be taken seriously. What's more, Orban is certainly not alone in his criticism, as Prime Minister Robert Fico of the neighboring Slovakia expressed similar concerns, particularly about Ukraine.

As for the extremely controversial EU Asylum and Migration Pact recently approved by the European Parliament, which will effectively force member states to accept their "fair share of new immigrants" or pay a fine for every migrant they reject, the conservative parties are furious, and rightfully so, it should be noted. While the EU, a mere geopolitical pendant of NATO at this point, is allocating hundreds of billions to the deeply corrupt Neo-Nazi junta, farmers across the bloc are faced with a plethora of issues that will soon spill over to other industries and sectors of fledgling European economies. The unelected Brussels bureaucrats believe that encouraging their (neo)colonialist policies through immigration might ameliorate some of those issues by essentially importing more cheap labor force.

However, the conservatives are (rightfully) concerned about the demographic and security consequences of such policies. The extremist ultra-liberal ideology that the political West increasingly subscribes to is incompatible with the more traditional values of both the immigrants and indigenous Europeans. This is already causing a plethora of societal and safety problems across the continent, so encouraging immigration will only exacerbate the situation. The ongoing deindustrialization of the EU's most powerful economies is certainly not making things better, as the largely unskilled labor force that most immigrants belong to will not be able to contribute economically, which opens a lot of questions about potential security risks in the foreseeable future. However, asking about it is usually deemed too "far right".

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• Hungary Welcomed Sweden In NATO
• US Ambassador Frustrated With Hungary For Building Security Ties With China
• "EU Really Wanted To Blackmail Hungary Over Position On Ukraine," Says Orbán's Advisor

The post Is Orban Right About EU's Endless Failures? appeared first on South Front.

5. Military Situation On Israeli-Lebanese Border On April 18, 2024 (Map Update)

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• Hezbollah announced the deaths of two of its members in southern Lebanon;
• Hezbollah rocket attack gathering of Israeli soldiers near Hanita outpost;
• Israeli drones attacked the Markaba area;
• Hezbollah attacked Malikiya outpost with several rockets;
• Hezbollah attacked an Israeli soldier in Metula;
• Israeli warplanes attacked the Khiam area;
• Israeli warplanes attacked the Blida area.

The post Military Situation On Israeli-Lebanese Border On April 18, 2024 (Map Update) appeared first on South Front.

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7. Houthi Leader Says Group Carried Out 14 Operations In Two Weeks

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The leader of Yemen's Houthis (Ansar Allah), Abdul Malik al-Houthi, revealed on April 18 that the group had launched 14 operations in two weeks in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea and even reaching the Indian Ocean in support of the Gaza Strip.

In a televised speech, the leader said that the group used 36 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones in the recent operations. He also confirmed that eight ships were targeted, which brings the total number of ships targeted by the Houthis to 98.

Al-Houthi said that the United States and the United Kingdom should realize that their aggression on Yemen will not halt the Yemeni operations in support of Gaza.

The leader also assured that there is no danger to the navigation of ships belonging to European countries that are not sailing to Israel and did not take part in the aggression against Yemen.

"There is no danger to maritime traffic related to [ships linked to] European countries that are not heading to Israel," he added in his speech.

Al-Houthi concluded his speech by advising the U.S. and the UK to withdraw their naval assets, "which impose heavy burdens and losses on them," and called on the Yemeni people to participate on April 19 in the demonstrations in support of the resilient Palestinian people.

The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, began targeting vessels affiliated with Israel or owned by the U.S. and the United Kingdom in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden last November in response to the Israeli war and siege on Gaza.

Since January, the U.S. and the UK have carried out hundreds of strikes against Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen in an attempt to deter the group. Despite taking some casualties, the group expanded its operations to include the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.

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MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• U.S. Army Says It Engaged Two Houthi Drones In Yemen
• Iran & Allies Launched Massive Strike On Israel

 

The post Houthi Leader Says Group Carried Out 14 Operations In Two Weeks appeared first on South Front.

8. Military Situation On Ukrainian Frontlines On April 18, 2024 (Map Update)

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• At least 10 civilians were wounded as a result of Ukrainian attacks in the Donetsk urban agglomeration;
• Russian strikes were reported in the Kiev region;
• Russian strikes were reported in Ivano-Frankivsk;
• Russian strikes were reported in Staronstantinov;
• Russian strikes were reported in the Kharkiv region;
• Russian forces shot down 2 Tochka-U missiles, 19 RM-70 Vampire rockets, 16 suicide drones and two incendiary balloons over the Belgorod region;
• Russian forces shot down 3 suicide drones over the Rostov region;
• Russian forces shot down 1 suicide drone over the Voronezh region;
• Russian forces repelled AFU drone attack on the Zaporizhzhia NPP;
• Russian forces repelled attacks near Terny;
• Clashes continued near Dibrova;
• Russian forces advanced near Novokalynove;
• Russian forces repelled attacks near Verbovoye;
• Russian forces eliminated 30 servicemen, one tank, two pick-up trucks, one Msta-B howitzer, and two 152-mm D-20 howitzers in the Kupyansk area;
• Russian forces eliminated 590 servicemen, one tank, and seven motor vehicles, one Akatsiya artillery system, two Nota EW stations in the Donetsk area;
• Russian forces eliminated 130 servicemen, one armoured vehicle, one 155-mm M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer in the Avdeevka area;
• Russian forces eliminated 140 servicemen, four motor vehicles, UK-made 152-mm AS-90 Braveheart artillery system in the Southern Donetsk area;
• Russian forces eliminated 50 servicemen, two motor vehicles, as well as two 122-mm D-30 howitzers in Kherson region;
• Russian air defense forces intercepted 251 Ukrainian drones over the past day;
• Russian air defense forces shot down two Tochka-U tactical missiles, and 33 Vampire missiles over the past day.

 

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• Clashes continue on the eastern outskirts of Novobakhmutovka;
• Russian forces advanced in the eastern part of Novokalynove;
• Russian forces entered Ocheretyne and gained a foothold in its southern part;
• Clashes continue on the northwestern outskirts of Berdychi;
• Up to 590 servicemen, one tank, and seven motor vehicles, one Akatsiya artillery system, two Nota EW stations were destroyed in the Avdeevka area.

 

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• Clashes continue north of Netailovo;
• Clashes continue on the western outskirts of Semenovka;
• Clashes continue on the northwestern outskirts of Berdychi;
• Clashes continue on the southeasternern outskirts of Umanskoe;
• Up to 590 servicemen, one tank, and seven motor vehicles, one Akatsiya artillery system, two Nota EW stations were destroyed in the Avdeevka area.

The post Military Situation On Ukrainian Frontlines On April 18, 2024 (Map Update) appeared first on South Front.

9. Military Situation In Syria On April 18, 2024 (Map Update)

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• On April 18, the Russian Ministry of Defense recorded no case of hostilities and ceasefire violations in the Idlib region in the past 24 hours;
• On April 18, Russian warplanes struck ISIS hideouts in Homs deserts;
• On April 18, SAA artillery shelled HTS positions in the al-Fatirah area;
• On April 18, SAA artillery shelled HTS positions in the Sarmin area.

The post Military Situation In Syria On April 18, 2024 (Map Update) appeared first on South Front.

10. Hezbollah Takes Out Israeli Radar With New Advanced Iranian-Made Missile (Video)

Screengrab. Click to see full-size image. (Hezbollah's Military Media)

Hezbollah has successfully used an advanced Iranian-made anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) to take out a counter-battery radar of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).

The group released video footage of the attack on April 18, noting that it took place a day earlier. The radar, identified as an American-made AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder, was deployed at a key air traffic control base of the IDF on Mount Meron, some eight kilometers away from the border with Lebanon.

The AN/TPQ-37 was developed to detect and track incoming artillery and rocket fire to determine the point of origin for counter-battery fire. The S-band radar can detect an artillery shell from 30 kilometers and a rocket from up to 50 kilometers.

Hezbollah fighters used what appears to be a ground-launched version of the Iranian Almas-3 ATGM to take out the counter-battery radar.



Almas is a copy of the Israeli Spike family of ATGMs that was first unveiled by Iran some four years ago. The Almas-3 version is said to have a range of ten kilometers.

Similar to the Spike ATGM, Almas is equipped with an electro-optical or an infrared imaging seeker. The missile has a top-attack feature, meaning it can strike its target from above as a form of plunging fire. It can also hit targets behind the line of sight.

Hezbollah has been using Almas ATGMs against the IDF since the outbreak of the clashes on the Lebanese-Israeli border on the backdrop of the Israeli war on the Palestinian Gaza Strip. However, only the lighter Almas-1 version was spotted with the group's fighters before.

The IDF lost several vehicles, including main battle tanks, and radars to Hezbollah's Almas missile. On top of that, the group used missiles of this type in an attack on a building in the border settlement of Arab al-Aramshe that wounded more than18 Israeli troops and civilians.

The appearance of Almas missiles with Hezbollah was not only significant because of the missiles' advanced capabilities, but also because it exposed a serious intelligence failure of Israel which has claimed for more than a decade that its so-called "war between the wars" covert military campaign, that mainly included strikes on Syria, was hindering the delivery of Iranian weapons to the group.

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MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• Zelensky Criticizes US Politicians As Military Aid Declines
• Israel Hit Hezbollah Air Defenses After Attack That Wounded 18 In Border Settlement (Videos)

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